The Trump administration’s decision to put Huawei Technologies Co. on a trade blacklist is likely to hinder the company’s efforts to dominate the next-generation 5G wireless industry by denying it vital U.S. technology, analysts say.
分析师称，特朗普(Donald Trump)政府把华为技术有限公司(Huawei Technologies Co.)列入了贸易黑名单，此举可能通过阻止华为获得美国关键技术了来阻碍华为主导下一代5G无线行业。
A Commerce Department order aimed at Huawei and dozens of its affiliates will block the Shenzhen-based telecom giant from obtaining U.S.-made goods and software, such as chips from Intel Corp. and the Android mobile operating system produced by Alphabet Inc.’s Google unit.
美国商务部针对华为及其数十家关联公司的命令将使华为无法获得产自美国的产品和软件，例如来自英特尔公司(Intel Co., INTC)的芯片，以及来自Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)旗下谷歌(Google)的Android移动操作系统。
The orders “are a missile salvo aimed at Huawei, and if they’re implemented well, they will dramatically constrain Huawei’s global ambitions,” said Jeremy Bash, a former senior defense and intelligence official who is now at Beacon Global Strategies.
目前任职于Beacon Global Strategies的前美国高级防务和情报官员Jeremy Bash表示，上述命令“是针对华为的导弹齐射，如果得到严格执行，将极大地限制华为的全球雄心”。
Late Thursday, the Commerce Department issued a rule promised a day earlier that puts Huawei and 68 affiliates around the world on a list banning the purchase of American parts and services without U.S. government approval.
上周四晚间，美国商务部发布了此前一天承诺的一项规定，将华为及其世界各地的68家关联公司列入一个清单，未经美国政府批准，该清单上的实体将被禁止采购美国零部件和服务。
Some analysts had thought the Commerce Department might provide exceptions for lower-risk business that U.S. companies do with Huawei and its affiliates. That could have included, for example, Google’s sales of its Android mobile operating system to Huawei for use in consumer handsets. But the order takes a harder line by imposing a license requirement on all exports and a “presumption of denial” for all applications.
一些分析师之前以为，美国商务部或许会为美国公司与华为及其关联公司之间风险较低的业务提供豁免。他们认为，可能提供的豁免包括谷歌向华为销售的用于民用手机的Android移动操作系统。但该命令采取了更强硬的路线，所有相关出口均需要申请许可证，且所有申请均适用推定拒绝(presumption of denial)。
Huawei said it would seek immediate remedies to the order and warned the move would hurt more than Huawei. “It will do significant harm to the American companies with which Huawei does business,” a spokesman said in a statement. Google didn’t respond to a request for comment on the implications.
华为表示，将尽快就此事寻求救济和解决方案，并警告称此举伤害的不只是华为。该公司发言人在一份声明中称，这会对与华为合作的美国公司造成巨大的经济损失。谷歌未回应关于相关影响的置评请求。
A similar Trump administration action against China’s ZTE Corp. nearly drove that firm out of business in 2018. Some analysts said they believe Huawei, which has had a year since then to prepare for the new restrictions, probably is in better position to withstand a cutoff of U.S. technology.
去年特朗普政府对中兴通讯股份有限公司(Zte Corp., 0763.HK)采取的类似行动几乎令该公司停业。一些分析师称，鉴于自那以来华为有一年时间为新的限制举措做准备，该公司或许能较好地应对美国切断技术供应的影响。
Commerce officials cited evidence that they said showed Huawei was engaged in activities that undermine U.S. national security interests, such as its alleged violations of U.S. trade sanctions against Iran.
美国商务部官员提到了显示华为参与危害美国国家安全利益活动的证据，例如涉嫌违反美国对伊朗的贸易制裁。
Also this week, the White House issued a broader executive order on telecommunications security and is likely to soon prohibit U.S. tech and telecom firms from importing or using gear from “foreign adversaries” that pose national-security risks. That probable directive is expected to include Huawei as well as other Chinese manufacturers.
同样在上周，白宫还发布了一份涉及范围更广的电信安全行政令，可能很快禁止美国科技和电信公司进口或者使用威胁国家安全的“外国敌手”的设备。预计这一潜在举措的目标将包括华为以及其他中国生产商。
The order issued Thursday to blacklist Huawei and others must still must be implemented, and much depends on how officials interpret key provisions. The order’s sweeping scope is expected to narrow as the Commerce Department draws up implementing rules.
上周四发布的将华为和其他公司列入黑名单的行政令仍然必须落实，落实情况在很大程度上取决于官员如何解读关键条款。随着美国商务部制定实施细则，预计该行政令的覆盖范围将会收窄。
“Potentially the authority is there” to shut down all sorts of technology trade between China and the U.S., said Kevin Wolf, an attorney with Akin Gump. But he predicted the Commerce Department would narrow the focus of the action to equipment that could be used to commit espionage on a large scale, or to shut down a large telecommunications network.
律所Akin Gump的律师Kevin Wolf表示，政府可能有权终止中美之间的所有技术贸易。但他预计，美国商务部将把行动重点缩小到可能用于大规模间谍活动的设备，或者导致大型通信网络瘫痪的设备。
Even so, analysts believe firms such as Intel and Qualcomm Inc. could suffer from the combined new restrictions, losing existing business with Chinese companies. Worse, American firms soon could find themselves in the crosshairs of Chinese retaliatory measures, industry insiders worry.
即便如此，分析师认为，这些新的限制措施综合起来可能会给英特尔(Intel Corp., INTC)和高通公司(Qualcomm Inc., QCOM)等企业带来冲击，令其与中国公司的现有业务受损。更糟糕的是，业内人士担心美国公司可能很快成为中国报复性举措的打击目标。
“The worst thing we worry about is retaliation,” said one person close to the industry. “It’s a pretty daunting thing for U.S. companies that are intertwined” with the Chinese economy.
一位了解行业的知情人士称：“我们最担心的就是报复。对于与中国经济联系非常紧密的美国公司来说，形势真的非常严峻。”
The Semiconductor Industry Association’s president, John Neuffer, said while the industry recognized the importance of cybersecurity, the administration should take the action against Huawei in a way that addresses national security concerns “without undermining this country’s global technology leadership and competitiveness.”
半导体产业协会(Semiconductor Industry Association)总裁John Neuffer称，虽然该行业认识到网络安全的重要性，但美国政府对华为采取行动的方式应该既解决国家安全方面的担忧，又不破坏美国的全球技术领先地位和竞争力。
Many U.S. tech companies, including Qualcomm, a major supplier of chips for mobile phones, do a lot of their business in China. Qualcomm derived about two-thirds of its revenue from China last year, according to regulatory filings, although Huawei wasn’t among a small group of companies that accounted for more than 10% of Qualcomm’s sales.
包括手机芯片主要供应商高通在内的许多美国科技公司在中国都有大量业务。根据监管备案文件，高通去年收入中约有三分之二来自中国市场。一小部分客户对其整体收入的贡献率超过10%，但华为不在这部分客户之列。
Xilinx Inc., a San Jose, Calif.-based chip maker that also has significant commercial links to China, could likewise suffer because of the move. Xilinx likely derives around 8.5% of its revenue from Huawei, according to Christopher Rolland, an analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group, and could face a $300 million reduction in revenue this year. A Xilinx spokeswoman declined to comment.
可能受特朗普政府此举冲击的还有总部位于加州圣何塞的赛灵思(Xilinx Inc., XLNX)，该公司与中国的商业往来也很紧密。据Susquehanna Financial Group分析师Christopher Rolland估计，赛灵思有8.5%的收入来自华为，今年的收入可能减少3亿美元。赛灵思的一名发言人未予置评。
Other chip makers, including Intel, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Nvidia Corp. , aren’t heavily exposed to Huawei, Bernstein Research analyst Stacy Rasgon said in a December report. Globally, however, Huawei is a big source of demand for semiconductors, ranking fifth globally as of 2017 behind Samsung Electronics Co. , Apple Inc., Dell Technologies Inc. and Lenovo Group , according to Bernstein.
Bernstein Research的分析师Stacy Rasgon在去年12月份的一篇报告中称，包括英特尔、Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)和英伟达(Nvidia co., NVDA)在内的其他芯片生产商与华为的业务规模都不大。不过，根据Bernstein截至2017年的数据，从全球来看，华为是半导体产品的一大需求来源，该公司需求规模排名第五；排名前四位的分别是三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co., 005930.SE)、苹果公司(Apple Inc., AAPL)、戴尔科技集团(Dell Technologies, DELL)和联想集团有限公司(Lenovo Group Ltd., 0992.HK)。
Still, the new move represents a significant attack on Huawei’s global brand, and could undermine its ambitions of becoming the go-to source for next-generation 5G equipment, several analysts said. It could also nudge U.S. allies to take a tougher stance on Huawei equipment for their networks, said Derek Scissors, an American Enterprise Institute scholar.
不过，几位分析师称，美国政府这一新举动是对华为全球品牌的沉重打击，可能削弱其成为下一代5G设备重要供应商的雄心。美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)学者史剑道(Derek Scissors)表示，此举也可能促使美国盟友对华为设备参与本国网络建设采取更加强硬的立场。
Several analysts said the policy shift could encourage Huawei to settle a sanctions case earlier brought against it by the U.S. government, now pending in federal district court in New York. ZTE settled its case by agreeing to pay a fine of $1 billion and allow U.S. enforcement officers to monitor its actions internally.
几位分析师称，这一政策转变可能推动华为就美国政府此前向其提起的违反制裁诉讼达成和解，目前该案在纽约联邦地区法院待审。中兴通讯为相关和解支付了10亿美元罚金，并且同意美国执法官员监督其内部活动。
Possible Chinese concessions in current U.S.-China trade talks—such as protection of intellectual-property rights and an end to forced technology transfers—also could lead the U.S. to relax some provisions, several analysts predicted.
几位分析师预计，中国也可能在正在进行的贸易谈判中作出让步，例如知识产权保护问题，以及结束强制技术转让等，这样也可能换得美方放松部分限制条款。
The impact of the moves could begin to be felt by U.S. suppliers and customers of Huawei almost immediately. But people in the industry said the worst effects could be longer-term, as China aims its regulatory machinery at U.S. firms and imposes retaliatory measures, such as new antitrust investigations.
华为的美国供应商和客户可能几乎立刻就会感受到这些举措的影响。但行业人士表示，随着中国将其监管机制针对美国公司，并采取新的反垄断调查等反制措施，更严重的影响可能是长期的。