【科研ish】科学60秒告诉我们为什么新冠传播这么快？

“科研ish”报告者：困在国的Domino

“The average person touches their face 2- or 3,000 times a day—three to five times every waking minute. In between, we’re touching doorknobs, water fountains, elevator buttons and each other.”

在清醒的状态，每人每天触摸脸两三千次，平均三到五次每分钟。在这个过程中，我们会摸门把，饮水池，电梯按钮及彼此。

电影 《传染病》Contagion(2011)

渐渐的，夏的脚步近了，我们期待这场旷日持久的“隔离”能最终结束和春天小姐姐一起离开。不过，从全球的每日确诊数量来看（不知不觉“今天的确诊数”成了许多人每天例行公事提问）,  和“隔离”挥手告别的日子似乎渐行渐远。为什么全球来看每天确诊数居高不下呢？我们今天来听听科学界的角度吧。

对应的文本

Let me give you one example from here in Washington. On March 10, despite stern official warnings not to gather in groups, 56 people met for an event in Skagit County. All of them were apparently healthy at the time. But 10 days later, 43 of those 56 people have either been confirmed to have COVID-19 or are showing symptoms of the disease. Experts suspect that one or more people in the group was a so-called “supershedder,” someone who has yet to show symptoms but is transmitting lots of infectious virus.

stern official warnings：严厉的官方警告

be confirmed to have COVID-19：被确诊患上新冠

show symptoms: 显示病症

expert suspect: 专家怀疑（推测）

“supershedder”：超级传播者

transmit infectious virus：传播感染性的病毒

These characteristics of the new coronavirus—its ability to lie in wait on surfaces and to spread easily among people who feel fine or well enough—that is what make this virus so contagious and hard to stop, as Elizabeth Halloran of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center explained at a news briefing last week:

lie in wait on surfaces：停留在表面上

contagious:有传染力的

news briefing：记者见面会

EH: “The basic reproductive number—that is, the average number of people that an average person infects at the beginning—is estimated to be about 2.5. And there are actually estimates that are higher.

reproductive number：再生传播数量

average：平均

infect:  传染

estimate：v. 估算; n.估算的数值

“That’s before, of course, all this behavioral reduction and social distancing, which would reduce it. But it’s going to be difficult, even if it does go down somewhat seasonally in the summer, to bring that down necessarily below one.”

behavioral reduction：行为减少（控制/约束）

social distancing：社交远离 

And until we can drag that reproductive number from 2.5 or so down to less than one, the pandemic will continue to accelerate.

drag：拉（使下降）

pandemic：流行病

accelerate：加速（增加/扩大）

原音频和文本出处

https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcasts/?page=2

Podcast Authors 

W. Wayt Gibbs 来自西雅图的撰稿编辑人，同时就职于Intellectual Ventures作为科学编辑。

Steve Mirsky 主持科学美国人播客的 Science Talk.

Featuring Scientist

Elizabeth Halloran， 来自Fred Hutchinson 癌症研究中心。